Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 2.551238 2.966327 3.425781 3.971832 4.602946 5.309323 6.159871
2026-01-25 1.861045 2.405712 3.072763 3.948840 5.068449 6.450865 8.287411
2026-02-01 1.358809 1.916983 2.659911 3.719028 5.188463 7.153814 9.981818
2026-02-08 1.058631 1.608138 2.392748 3.591258 5.372781 7.920312 11.838658
2026-02-15 0.872285 1.413130 2.233934 3.565060 5.665188 8.846435 14.028209
2026-02-22 0.768003 1.317281 2.197141 3.701573 6.203184 10.189621 17.018282
2026-03-01 0.654654 1.183340 2.073231 3.670389 6.456851 11.107302 19.447249
2026-03-08 0.558998 1.060853 1.945276 3.605456 6.633245 11.906436 21.771000
2026-03-15 0.490902 0.974849 1.864925 3.606818 6.917009 12.913903 24.578755
2026-03-22 0.469617 0.972276 1.933727 3.888579 7.745952 14.990483 29.593086
2026-03-29 0.426948 0.920263 1.900215 3.967424 8.196942 16.420133 33.571750
2026-04-05 0.388461 0.870157 1.862202 4.029698 8.619951 17.842936 37.714450
2026-04-12 0.347699 0.810645 1.800483 4.043366 8.965903 19.198713 41.997647
2026-04-19 0.308667 0.748731 1.725184 4.018796 9.233120 20.441778 46.252570
2026-04-26 0.259741 0.655455 1.566535 3.784611 9.006788 20.611701 48.223254
2026-05-03 0.225190 0.590217 1.460900 3.654504 8.994614 21.243833 51.310831
2026-05-10 0.201701 0.548150 1.402888 3.627810 9.219286 22.437508 55.857628
2026-05-17 0.190078 0.534522 1.411783 3.766662 9.864506 24.693618 63.242473
2026-05-24 0.171125 0.497918 1.357037 3.734935 10.078368 25.944493 68.341577
2026-05-31 0.152929 0.460103 1.293114 3.668881 10.193616 26.967090 73.009627
2026-06-07 0.139679 0.433995 1.256345 3.670265 10.487498 28.480128 79.157727
2026-06-14 0.138500 0.443281 1.318590 3.956881 11.601118 32.268848 91.870436
2026-06-21 0.129768 0.428075 1.309097 4.037082 12.149687 34.627256 101.017690